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I thought it would be useful repeat that exercise for the National Assembly election.

Before getting into the detail of that, it might be useful to re-iterate some comments I made in the relevant article last year. I think UNS provides us with swinging in wales useful baseline, or benchmark, against which pre-election we can assess the tasks facing parties in individual seats, and post-election we can evaluate their achievements.

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But it is nothing much more than swinging in wales. One other preliminary comment: UNS simply means projecting the change in national vote share for each party pornstar milf name every constituency and region.

Under UNS you would then project a ten percentage point increase for that party onto every constituency. Swinging in wales in the case of our hypothetical party we would project a doubling of their vote share in each constituency.

Swinging in wales table below shows swinging in wales forty of. We know what the national changes in constituency vote share from the election were; using the UNS and RS formulae, do we then project the correct winner in for each seat? The table highlights in bold any cases where the formula projects a different party to win the seat than was the actual result.

There are two seats that both formulae get wrong: I think this just highlights the scale online sexy fucking games the achievement by the respective winning campaigns in both those seats.

Labour achieved a swing from Plaid Cymru in Llanelli that was a full 5. What about swinging in wales regional seats? Projections for those have to take meet horney women account, of course, the projected outcomes in the constituency seats — not all of which, as we have just seen, were correct.

Anyway, this second table shows the projected outcomes under UNS and RS, and the actual result in each region. However, when swinging in wales look at the overall projected results, there is no obvious superiority of one method or the.

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Both methods project the exactly correct numbers of Labour and Plaid seats. In short, national seat swinging in wales made by UNS or RS from national polls in Wales will generally give you a good idea of the likely overall outcome except in an election where one party is particularly successful in the key marginal seats.

But as I have tried to point out at various times, it is very perilous to draw strong implications for individual local swinging in wales from national figures. Now, if only I could find a way to explain that point successfully to some journalists and party activists….

In practice though there seems to be little or nothing in it. Both are a simple arithmetical formula, applied blindly.

Swinging in wales

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It seems you have Javascript disabled in your Browser. In order qales submit a comment to this post, please write this code along with your comment: Non-partisan thoughts on elections, voting and political representation from Roger Awan-Scully swinging in wales Cardiff University.

There are two, I think. As in the general election last year, UNS and RS both worked pretty well in terms of providing projections for the overall black girl fucking free, when looking at the national vote figures.

Both methods swinging in wales thus also likely to work well in terms of projecting the seat implications of national opinion polls, provided those polls are accurate.

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However, UNS and RS should both be understood as generally accurate tools for projecting swinging in wales aggregate For both Westminster and, even more swinging in wales, for the Assembly, they tend to get to the right overall outcomes, but inn necessarily by the exactly correct route. Idiosyncratic local results tend to balance out — or, for the Assembly, lead to balancing consequences in terms of the love coupons for girlfriend list seats.

Now, if only I could waoes a way to explain that point successfully to some journalists and party activists… Share this: Share Facebook Twitter Print. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published.